MorganStanley,amultinationalinvestmentandfinancialservicesfirm,recentlyreleasedareportontheglobaleconomicoutlookfor2023thatpaintsanot-so-rosypicture.Thereport,dubbed2023GlobalMacroOutlook:InflationPeaks,GrowthSlows,opinesthattheyear2023islikelytowitnessa"weakergrowth,lessinflationandtheendoftheratehikes,withtheU.S.narrowlymissingarecession,EuropecontractingandAsiaofferinggreenshootsforgrowth."MorganStanleyestimatestheglobaleconomytogrowat3percentin2022and2.2percentin2023.AfurtheranalysisoftheeconomicoutlookintheEUandtheUKpointstoatougherroadaheadformosteconomies.TheU.S.isexpectedtohaveasoftlandingandtepidrecovery.TheAsianoutlookisoptimisticandChina,beingakeyeconomy,isshoringuptheeconomicperformanceoftheAsianeconomy.

China"seconomyisforecastedtogrowat5percentin2023.ThiswillboostprivateconsumptionandhelptheglobalsupplychainstorecoverfullyinthewakeoftheeaseoftheinternalCOVID-19restrictions.ThisfeedsintothewiderschemeofinternationalcooperationthattheChinesegovernmenthasbeenconductingwiththerestoftheworld,particularlythroughtheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI).Thepost-COVID-19relationshipbetweenChinaandAfricahasfocusedfirmlyondevelopmentcooperation.Theyear2022sawsignificantgrowthinSino-Africanrelations,particularlywithregardtotheBRI,theForumonChina-AfricaCooperation(FOCAC)andthemegaChinaInternationalImportExpo,meanttoopenuptheChinesedomesticmarkettoimportsfromtheAfricancountries.

(资料图片)

Improvingconnectivity

SeveralprojectsundertheBRIwerestarted,continuedorcompletedduring2022.SomeoftheBRIprojectsinAfricaincludebuildingofthecoastalrailwaylineinNigeria,BagamoyoPortinTanzania,infrastructureminesintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Chad-SudanRailwayandtheMphandaNkuwaDamandHydroelectricStation,tonamebutafew.ThecompletionoftheseinfrastructuralprojectshaspromotedtradeamongAfricancountriesandwiththerestoftheworld.

SpeakingattheCoordinators"MeetingontheImplementationoftheFollow-upActionsoftheEighthFOCACMinisterialConference,dubbedChinaandAfrica:StrengtheningFriendship,SolidarityandCooperationforaNewEraofCommonDevelopment,ChineseStateCouncillorWangYienumeratedsomeoftheprojectsthathavebeencompletedasaresultofthepositiveeconomicpartnershipbetweenChinaandAfrica.InSenegal,thecompletionoftheChinese-fundedFoundiougneBridge,WestAfrica"slargestbridgecosting$71million,hasimprovedtheroadnetworkandeasedtrafficflow.ThishasledtoincreasedeconomicandcommercialexchangesaroundFatick,atowninsouthwestSenegal.

BesidesimprovingtheconnectivitybetweenFatickandothercities,thebridgeisinstrumentalindecongestingthePortofDakarandsupportingregionaleconomicgrowthinagriculture,fisheriesandtourismsectorsinSenegalanditsneighbouringcountriesoftheGambia,Guinea,Guinea-BissauandMali.MeanwhileinKenya,thecompletionofthe27kmNairobiExpresswaythatconnectsJomoKenyattaInternationalAirportfromtheeasttothewestofNairobihasimprovedaccessibility,affordabilityandreliabilityofthetransportinfrastructuresysteminthecapital.

InCameroon,thecompletionoftheKribi-LolabeHighwayinthesouthwesternregionhasopeneditupfortradeanddevelopmentofindustrialzones.ThehighwayalsoconnectsKribiDeepSeaportwiththecountry"sN7nationalhighway.FurthernorthinEgypt,theChina-built10thofRamadanLRT-anexemplaryprojectofChina-Egyptcooperation-wascompletedandwillimprovelogisticsofcontainerisedtransportforimportersandexportersbetweenthePortofAlexandria,Damietta,PortSaidandSokhna.Theprojecthasalsopromotedtheeaseofdoingbusinessbyprovidingflexibilityforshippersthroughround-the-clockoperations.

TheseChinese-backedprojects,undertheframeworksoftheSino-Africancooperation,areplayingapivotalroleineconomicgrowth,developmentandindustrialisationofthecontinent.

Agriculturalcooperation

ThefoundationthathasbeenbuiltbetweenChinaandAfricaisaformidablebuildingblockforimpactfulcooperation.Thisnewyearof2023offersfreshimpetusthatwillrequireastrategicapproachtocooperationgearedtowardsimprovingthepost-COVID-19economicrecoveryinAfrica.Thefocuswillnowturntofoodsecurityasapriorityareaofstrengthenedcooperation.WhileweappreciateChina"seffortinpromotingfoodsecurityonthecontinent,Africancountriesalsohopetolearnagribusinesstechnologyandshareagriculturalmachinerythatwillimproveproductivityandcuretheperennialproblemofover-dependencyontraditionalfarmingmethods.

Thesigningofexchangeletterswith12Africancountriesonzerotarifffor98percentofAfricanexportstoChinain2022isastepintherightdirection.ThisguaranteesAfricaneconomiesareadymarketfortheiragriculturalproducethrough“greenlanes.”Andwhilethelaunchofthejointcentresformodernagriculturaltechnologyexchange,demonstrationandtraininginfourAfricancountriesisagoodstartingpoint,thereisaneedtospreadthiscollaborationtomorethanhalfoftheAfricancountries.Thiswillhelpincreatingagribusiness-ledjobs,improvinglivelihoodsinruralareasandacceleratingthefightagainstpovertyinAfrica.

Lookingforward

As2023unfolds,theChina-Africarelationsshouldfocusonpartnershipsforeconomicdevelopmentinthedigitaleconomy,greenandlow-carbonsectors,manufacturing,andhealthsystemsthatincludeconstructionofhospitalsandproductionofvaccines.Moreimportantly,China"spromiseofwaiving23interest-freeloansfor17AfricancountriesisexpectedtoeaseAfrica"sdebtburdenandprovidemoreresourcesforhigh-impactprojects.AttheadventofCOVID-19,Africaestimatedthatadebtreliefintherangeof$100-150billionwouldhelpthecontinenttocopewiththenegativeeffectsofthepandemic.

ThereisnodoubtthattheChina-AfricacooperationhasopenedupmanyAfricaneconomiestomodernisation,thatcanonlyaddfreshimpetustocontinentaldevelopment,generatepositiveenergyforthecontinent"sstabilityandusherinaneweraofhope.

Theauthoriseconomist,consultantandregionalcommentatorontradeandinvestmentbasedinNairobi,Kenya.