TheinternationalcommunityhasbeencriticizingtheBeltandRoadInitiative,claimingitwillpushtheBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap.

Yettherehasbeennosubstantiveresearchconfirmingtheclaimistrue.Suchcriticismsaremostlypartofthepoliticizationofwhatessentiallyisaneconomicissue,especiallysincedatashowthattheBeltandRoadInitiativecanshortenlogisticstimebyabout2.5percent,reduceglobaltradecostsby2.2percent,andincreaseglobalrealincomebyashighas2.9percent.

(资料图)

Government"sdebtdoesn"tstuntgrowth

AccordingtotheBarro-Ricardoeffect,governmentdebtdoesnotaffecteconomicgrowthatall.AndresearchbytheInternationalMonetaryFundshowsthatthereisanoptimaldebtratiobetweentheGDPgrowthofthedifferentcountriesandtheirgovernments"sovereigndebt.Accordingtothisstudy,ifdebtreachestheoptimalratio,itwillmaximizetheeconomicgrowthrate.

Economistsacrosstheworldhavebeendebatingontherelationshipbetweengovernmentdebtandeconomicdevelopment.YetsincetheBeltandRoadprojectsarebeingimplementedonlysince2013,thereisnotenoughdatatocarryoutanin-depthstudyintotherelationshipbetweentheinfrastructureprojectsandtheeconomicgrowthoftheBeltandRoadcountries.

However,thishasnotstoppedeconomists,politicalscientists,governmentofficials,thinktanksandthemediafromIndia,theUnitedStates,Australiaandothercountriesto"classify"itaspartofChina"s"debt-trapdiplomacy".

Forexample,Indiangeo-strategistBrahmaChellaneypublishedanarticleintheWorldPressSyndicateinJanuary2017inwhichhehadusedtheterm"debttrap"tostigmatizetheBeltandRoadInitiative.ScholarslikeChellaneyaccuseChinaofusingopaqueloanconditionstoprovideinfrastructurefinancinginordertogainaccesstothesecountries"militaryorstrategicresources.

Byblatantlytermingthisasaformofdebt-trapdiplomacy,thescholarsportraytheBeltandRoadInitiativeinabadlight.However,thepoliticiansandpoliticalscientistsfromtheabove-mentionedcountriesandregionsthatpoliticizeeconomicissuesarenotwithoutcounter-arguments.

Forexample,leadersandofficialfiguresofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutes,suchasZambia,KenyaandAngolawhichmanyWesternobserverssayarecaughtinChina"sdebttrap,haveondifferentoccasionspubliclyrefutedtheerroneousremarks.

Indeed,evensomeprominentUSscholarsandthinktankshavestudiedthedataandpublishedreportsrefutingthe"Chinadebt-traptheory".Forexample,DeborahBrautigamandMegRithmire,twodistinguishedprofessorsofpoliticaleconomyatJohnsHopkinsUniversityandHarvardUniversity,respectively,haveassertedthatChina"s"debttrap"isamyth.ThescholarsalsosaidthatinsomecountrieslikeMontenegro,KenyaandZambia,thereisclearevidencethattheWesternmediaspreadsuchfearswithoutprovidinganyevidencetosupporttheirclaim.

Also,aRANDCorporationreportfromtheUSsaysthatrailwayconnectivitywillboosttheexportvalueofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadby2.8percent.

TheMinistryofForeignAffairsandmanyChinesescholarshavebeenrepeatedlyrefutingtheWest"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".ForeignMinistryspokesmanWangWenbin,forinstance,quotedWorldBankdataonJuly2022tosaythat49Africancountrieshadborrowed$696billion.Butsome75percentcamefrommultilateralfinancialinstitutionsandprivatefinancialinstitutions.

FourinterestingfeaturesofBRI

OurresearchintotheBeltandRoadInitiativehasuncoveredfourinterestingfeatures.

First,ironically,politiciansincountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutewhohypedupthe"debttraptheory"arethefirstonestostrengthencooperationwithChinawhentheycometopower.Forinstanceiftheyhappentobeintheopposition,theycangainenoughpublicsupportandthusvotestoousttherulingpartybyleveragingChina"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".

Whatisreallyironicisthatoncetheseoppositionpoliticianscometopower,theydoaU-turnandseekChineseinvestmentsbecausetheyunderstandtheimportanceofboostingthenationaleconomy.

Second,akeyfeatureofChineseinvestmentinBeltandRoadcountriesisthatittendstofocusonlong-termmutualeconomicbenefits.ThisisanaturalconsequenceofChina"spoliticalandsocialstructures.

ItisthesuretythattheChinesegovernmentwillhonoritscommitmentsthathasearnedChinasupportandpraisefromtheBeltandRoadcountries.ThisisveryimportantastheperiodofROII(returnoninfrastructureinvestment)tendstobeverylongandprofitscannotbemadeintheshortterm.

NowonderChineseinvestorsinBeltandRoadcountriesalwayspaygreaterattentiontolong-termratherthanshort-termeconomicbenefits.Forexample,accordingtoIndonesia"sofficialestimates,theJakarta-BandungrailwaylineinIndonesia,whichcouldstartoperationsfromMay,isbuiltbyChinaforacostofabout$8billion.

Butwhileitislikelytogeneratemorethan$23.1billioninrevenue,itwilltakethenext40yearstorealizeit,accordingtoourresearch.

ItisbecauseofsuchinfrastructureprojectsanddeepeningdiplomatictiesthatSino-Indonesiantraderelationswillcontinuetodeepen,buckingtheglobaltrend.Indeed,in2021bilateraltradereached$124.43billion,up58.6percentyear-on-year.

Also,ChinahasbeenIndonesia"ssecond-largestforeigninvestorsince2019,andhasdiversifieditsinvestmentinfieldssuchaselectricity,mining,automobilemanufacturing,emergingnetworkindustries,aswellasfinancing.

Third,interestingly,oneofthereasonswhydebtorcountrieswanttoborrowmoneyfromChinatobuildorimproveinfrastructureisbecauseitcanhelpthempaytheirdebtstoWesterncountries.

Atpresent,about70percentoftheinvestmentsinBeltandRoadprojectsareconcentratedininfrastructureconstruction,andtherestinthefieldssuchastheenergy,health,innovativetechnology,andtourismsectors.

BeltandRoadcountriesborrowmoneyfromChinatoimprovetheirinfrastructure,inordertodeveloptheireconomysotheycanrepaytheloanstakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions.Improvementofinfrastructurecanboosttheeconomyandincreasegovernmentrevenue.That"swhytheJoeBidenadministrationhaslaunchedaninfrastructureplanworthmorethan$1.2trillion,hopingtostimulatetheUnitedStates"economicrecovery.

TheinfrastructureconstructionneedsoftheBeltandRoadcountrieswereignoredbytheUSandEuropeancountriesandtheirbanks.Incontrast,ChinaiswillingtolendahelpinghandtosuchcountriesandprovideChinesetechnologyandstandardstobuildinfrastructurefacilities.

OnlybypromotingeconomicdevelopmentandthusincreasingtaxrevenuescanagovernmentgeneratemorefundstorepaytheloansithastakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions,boosttheeconomyandimprovepeople"slivelihoods.

Fourth,thecontinuousandsubstantialinterestratehikesbytheUSFederalReserveandthenewwaveofCOVID-19infectionsaretherealchallengesBeltandRoadcountrieshavetoovercometoproperlymanagetheirdebts.Infact,theFed"srecentaggressiveinterestratehikeshavecauseddebtcrisesinmanyBeltandRoadcountrieswithrelativelyhighUSdollardebts.

ManyBeltandRoadcountrieswithsignificantdebtrisksgenerallyhavediversecreditors—fromtheUStoEuropeancountriestoJapanandfromtheIMFtotheWorldBank.Chinaiscertainlynottheonlycreditorofcountrieswithhighdebtrisks.

TheWestmusthelpdevelopingcountries

SoinsteadofaccusingChinaofforcingBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap,theWestshouldfocusonhowtohelpthedebtorcountriestoovercomethedebtchallengesandstrengthenconsultationandcooperationamongcountriestoprovidesystematicandcomprehensivesolutionsforcountries"debtresolution.

Afterall,theonlylong-termandrealsolutionistoimplementacomprehensiveplanandfocusonassistingthesecountriestohastentheireconomicrecoveryandenhancetheirdevelopmentcapabilities.

CharlesDarwinfamouslysaidthattheeventualsurvivalofaspeciesisnotbecauseitisthestrongestorthesmartest;itisbecauseitismostadaptabletochange.AmongalltheinvestmentprojectspromotingthedevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative,China"srateofinterestonloansmaynotbethelowestandChinesetechnologymaynotbethebestintheworld,butChineseprojectsarecertainlybestsuitedtopromotetheeconomicdevelopmentofBeltandRoadcountries.

FengDaHsuanisthehonorarydeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute;andLiangHaimingisthedeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute.Theviewsdon"tnecessarilyrepresentthoseofChinaDaily.

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