环球精选!Decoding China's economic recovery at "two sessions"
Whilearecessionriskstillhangsovertheglobaleconomy,theongoing"twosessions"inChinareassuredinvestorsandbusinessesthattheworld"ssecond-largesteconomyisbouncingbackfromCOVID-19shocksandwillcontinuetoserveasastronggrowthdriverfortheglobe.
OnSunday,anarrayofmuch-anticipatedeconomictargetsfor2023wereunveiledinagovernmentworkreport,whichisdeliberatedanddiscussedbynationallegislatorsandpoliticaladvisorswhoaregatheringherefortheirannualmeetings,alsoknownasthe"twosessions."
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Accordingtothereport,thecountry"sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isprojectedtoexpandbyaround5percentyearonyear.Othertargetsincludeabout12millionnewurbanjobsandaconsumerpriceincreaseofabout3percent.
Aftertheslower3-percenteconomicgrowthrecordedlastyear,thereboundenvisionedinthereport,alongwithaseriesofpro-growthmeasuresfromexpandingdomesticdemandtomodernizingtheindustrialsystemandattractingforeigninvestment,offeredafreshshotofconfidenceintheresilienceandprospectsoftheChineseeconomy.
Chinahastheabilitytomeetitsgrowthtarget,saideconomistYuMiaojie,presidentofLiaoningUniversityandanationallegislator,notingthatbusinessactivitiesandpeople"sliveshavebeenreturningtonormalcyswiftlyandthatdomesticgrowthmomentumhasbeengatheringsteamsincethebeginningoftheyear.
"ForabigdevelopingcountrylikeChina,high-qualitydevelopmentrequiresanadequategrowthrate,andweneedtopromoteafulleconomicrecoveryasquicklyaspossible,"saidLiuShangxi,headoftheChineseAcademyofFiscalSciencesandanationalpoliticaladvisor.
Infact,therehavebeenincreasingsignsthattheeconomyisroaringback,asprovedbyhummingmachinesinfactoriesandthereappearinghustleandbustleattouristattractions.
Thepurchasingmanagers"indexforChina"smanufacturingsectorcameinat52.6inFebruary,risingfortwoconsecutivemonthsandmarkingthestrongestlevelsinceApril2012.Asevidenceofimprovingconsumersentiment,tourismrevenuessurged30percentyearonyearandcinemasnationwidereportedthesecond-highestboxofficefigureonrecordduringtheweek-longSpringFestivalholidayinJanuary.Morecitieswitnessedmonth-on-monthincreasesinhomepricesinJanuary,indicatingastabilizingpropertymarket.
ACNNreportquotedJulianEvans-Pritchard,headofChinaeconomicsatCapitalEconomics,assayingthatChina"slatest"exceptionallystrong"dataconfirmeda"veryrapidrebound"ineconomicactivity.Giventhequickturnaround,theexpertbelieveshisfirm"s5.5percentgrowthforecastforChinathisyearmaybetooconservative.
Reachingthesegoalsisnoeasytask.Despitetheupwardtrend,Sunday"sgovernmentworkreportwarnedofexternalchallengesfromlingeringhighinflationandweakeningeconomicandtradegrowthglobally,andsaidthefoundationforstablegrowthathomealsoneedstobeconsolidated.
Tobravechallenges,aspateofpro-growthpolicieswereannouncedinthereport,includinga3-percentdeficit-to-GDPratio,aprioritygiventotherecoveryandexpansionofconsumption,3.8trillionyuan(about550billionU.S.dollars)ofspecial-purposelocalgovernmentbonds,andcontinuedtaxandfeecutstorelievetheburdensforbusinesses.
Thenewmeasuresstruckchordsamonglawmakersandpoliticaladvisorsparticipatinginthe"twosessions."
Maintainingthenecessarygovernmentspendingintensitywillhelppromotefulleconomicrecovery,saidZhangLianqi,vicechairmanoftheChineseTaxInstituteandanationalpoliticaladvisor.WangChanglin,presidentoftheAcademyofMacroeconomicResearchandanationalpoliticaladvisor,stressedtheneedtoletconsumptionrecoverandreemergeasthemaineconomicdriver.
LiXiehua,presidentofChinalcoAdvancedManufacturingCo.,Ltd.andanationallegislator,saidhisbusinesshasbenefitedgreatlyfromfavorablepoliciesoverthepastyearsandafterreadingthenewones,heisreassuredandmoreconfident.
Withgoalsestablishedandsolidactionsinthepipeline,thepromisingpictureoftheChineseeconomypaintedduringthe"twosessions"wasechoedacrosstheworld.
RemarkingontheheadlineGDPtarget,KevinKang,KPMGChina"schiefeconomist,saiditismuchstrongerthanmostoftheworld"smajoreconomiesandbelievesChinawillovershootthetargetbyrecordinga5.7percentgrowthrate.
Chinawillcontinuetobeoneofthemajorcountriestoseethestrongestgrowththisyear,anditscontributiontoglobaleconomicgrowthwillstandat30percent,saidStevenBarnett,IMFseniorresidentrepresentativeinChina.
Mostrecently,ratingagencyMoody"sraiseditsforecastforChina"sgrowthfrom4percentto5percentforboththisyearand2024.
ChinaistheonlymajoreconomyintheworldontracktoseedecentgrowthinbothcorporateprofitsandGDPin2023,accordingtoareportinthemagazineBarron"s."GivenChina"sappetiteforenergy,autos,andmuchmore,thatisgoodnewsfortheglobaleconomy,anditraisestheoddsthattheworldcanavertarecession,evenastheUnitedStatesandEuropeslow."
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